It is nearly a year since I wrote an entry on “Brexit”, and I am going to indulge myself in a new ‘blog on the subject.

“Sad”, “Foolish” and “Childlike” are the adjectives which come to my mind.

In reverse order, “Childlike” because I believe that it is the petulant reaction of the poorer people in the UK to seeing a few of the richer echelons do very well out of global trade whilst they see their standard of living falling as a result of the “meltdown” in global banking and finance, and resent the bailouts provided by central governments.

Even in Australia there are groups within our society whose simplistic view (fostered by the radical rightwing parties for their own aggrandisement) is that isolationism is the way to protect ourselves from the “winds of change” blowing through the world economy as the result of globalisation.  Globalisation can no more be stopped than you can hold back the tide of the sea: yes you can build a tidal barrage, but the cost is huge and the environmental and other impacts unpredictable.  It is unlikely to end well.

Part of the childlike attitude is what I see as the polarisation into groups who simply will no longer listen to reasoned argument.  I am probably guilty of this myself (even as a semi-detached observer!) – I read the Guardian online (and Weekly Guardian), and cannot bring myself to read the opposite views trumpeted (I understand) by the Murdoch press [I don’t want either to waste my time on the Daily Mail website, or put my blood pressure up by reading what I think I will find there].  So from the views portrayed as reasonable by people with views like mine, I deduce that all reasonable-minded people think the same way!  It is very clear from all I hear or read (not just from the Grauniad) that the two sides are now just shouting at each others across a gulf of incomprehension.  Or is it a gulf of simple visceral hostility?  This is hopeless – unless that gulf is somehow “filled in”, or “crossed”, nothing will change.  Of course this is exactly what self-serving politicians like Boris Johnson want.

“Foolish” only in the view of the people whose views coincide with my own, of course.  I find myself in the somewhat unusual situation of hoping that I am completely wrong in my assessment of the situation.  No-one I know wishes the UK and the EU to be diminished by this process, and yet I cannot see how any other outcome can seriously be put forward.  One of the most powerful arguments against “Brexit” is surely that President Putin of Russia wants it to happen – surely even the likes of Boris J must have some misgivings over that?

For the sake of my friends and family in the UK, I hope that Boris-and-the-Borers are right: that the short-term damage [and no-one can seriously doubt that there will be short-term damage] will be worth a long-term gain.  “Foolish” because I cannot belief that the poorer elements of UK society really were willing to see serious short-term financial disadvantage as being worthwhile for a possible advantage that will be at least a decade away.  Even I wouldn’t vote for that.  I believe the voters see the short-term damage, and somehow believe that short-term damage to the financial sector will be so gratifying that it will assuage their own pain.  I suspect, sadly, that they underestimate the pain that they will suffer.

That is part of the “Sad” part.  Great Britain has not really been “great” for many years, but that was never the point of that nomenclature – it was “great” as opposed to small.  It included Wales, Ireland and Scotland.  However even if Scotland does not break away (I don’t think they can or should), and Welsh Independence is a sad joke, then Ireland is in for a very uncertain future, which I predict can only end in a botched unification.

“Sad” also because both the UK and the EU will be diminished by this piece of Conservative party politics gone feral – Cameron has a lot to answer for – and the world cannot afford this.

I am sad, very sad.  My only comfort is that I am an Australian.