OK, did I get your attention?

The world is in an interesting place (“interesting” as in the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times”).  Where do I see us as being, and where will we go, and why?

The first part is the current situation: all nations seem to be crawling back into their holes – fine for a nation such as Australia which could be self-sufficient if it chooses, less good for (physically) smaller nation-states dependent on trade,  How long can this be sustained?   A year?  Six months, three months. one month?  My guess is that after a month the fragile consensus with break down.  What happens after that is dependent on what Imports/exports a government allows – and how much hypocrisy the electorate will forgive.

The second question is clearly dependent on the answer to Q1.  Assuming that all (westernised) nations come to the same conclusion at the same time, international transfer of food and other goods will resume, although with greater precautions and checks than before,  Transfer of people (and animals) will be significantly restricted, for ever, I suspect.

So, where does “Gaia” come into it?  The Gaia hypothesis was proposed (I think) by James Lovelock.  Basically it says that the Earth is a self-sustaining entity which alters conditions on Earth to sustain life (not human life, just life in the widest sense).  Gaia is the Earth-goddess.  So if “the Earth” needs to wipe out Homo Sapiens in order that Life-on-Earth survives, this will occur – through the coronavirus, or some other pathogen or event.

I can no-more believe in Gaia than I could in a Catholic “God” (vide recent events regarding “Archbishop” George Pell), however there can be no doubt that the environment will benefit from the reduction in human actvity – reduced intercontinental ‘plane flights, etc.

I do not think we will EVER return to the previous level of activity – transcontinental flights will forever be more difficult and expensive, the era of inexpensive world exploration is over, I am pretty sure.  Overall, though, I suspect that the world be better for these changes.

Gaia, I see your power …

I’m not sure that I have an new insights, but perhaps a little personal perspective.  Theoretically We will be on the front line – three doctors and a final year medical student (who may well be drafted in to help).  Of these, most at risk will be Nicholas and Andrew, but also those least likely to have a severe manifestation of COVID-19.

I hope this is not a doomed prophecy, but none of us are likely to be severely affected or die.  It is possible, but my reading of the literature and newspapers so far suggests that we would be extremely unlucky to die of this virus.  Most who die are over 80 years old, over 70 with other significant diseases, or over 60 and immunosuppressed or with cancers.

In my opinion, though, this may be the first of many pandemics: the virus is, I believe, and product of viral evolution, in the same way as antibiotic-resistant bacteria are a product of natural selection. The coronavirus has evolved to defeat modern medical practices.  For many years it has been known that the influenza virus mutates/evolves to produce new strains each year with different antigens exposed, which evade the immune response mounted by humans.  We are always a year behind in our vaccinations.  Now we have a series of viruses which behave a little like ‘flu: first came virus-based deadly diseases such as SARS and MERS – respiratory infections with systemic manifestations.  They were deadly right from the start, and people catching them became seriously ill.  We have defeated their threats with various public health measures and medical innovations.  So the viruses evolve:  the coronavirus has become a “sleeper” virus, with most cases going un-noticed (especially in children), but with some people severely affected, and some dying.  Much more difficult for modern society to deal with and eliminate the risk.

Australia is not doing well.  Between panic buying of toilet rolls (and COVID-19 doesn’t even produce diarrhoea), a government too slow to act, and one which spent much time deriding the financial measures used by the Labor Government in the GFC, but which are now universally agreed to be necessary, we are in a bad place.  Between the drought, bush fires, Corona virus, and electing a Coalition government, we are in a bad way

Talking about toilet roll panic buying, a commentator on the radio that working from the average number of toilet rolls bought, a family of four isolated for a fortnight, using an average of eight sheets per visit, would have to go to do a poo 184 times per day, collectively, to use up their panic-bought supply.  

I have been feeling guilty for some time about my “carbon footprint”.  I cycle to work when I can, and far more often than Sue would like).  I catch the train when I can, I drive a Diesel powered small car, eat largely vegetarian, etc.  However my travel to conferences and to visit friends abroad is not (by carbon emission standards) a good thing.

So I have been looking into what I could do to “compensate” for this.  Buying “offsets” is not straightforward, as this website shows.   https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/energy/short-guide-carbon-offsets